Georgia's primary electorate flipped blue, and crossover voters had little to do with it.

Democrats cast 54% of Georgia's major-party primary ballots, up from 38% in 2022. Crossover ran even, 2.1% each way. The gain came from 2022 Republican primary voters who stayed home and from first-time Democrats.

R → D crossover2.1%

of Republican-history voters voted in the Democratic primary

29,316 voters · 2.7% of D ballots

D → R crossover2.1%

of Democratic-history voters voted in the Republican primary

25,289 voters · 2.7% of R ballots

First-time Democrats18.7%

of expected voters with no primary history voted in the Democratic primary

214,333 voters · 19.9% of D ballots

First-time Republicans7.1%

of the same group voted in the Republican primary

80,927 voters · 8.7% of R ballots

New Democrats outpaced new Republicans everywhere but the reddest precincts

Share of expected voters with no primary history who voted in each primary, by precinct 2024 Harris share.

First-time Democrats clustered in Clayton, DeKalb and Rockdale; first-time Republicans in the North Georgia mountains.

First-time Democrats: 3% to 36%

The rate climbs from 3% in precincts near 10% Harris to 36% at 90%. Clayton (33%), Rockdale (32%) and DeKalb (31%) led. First-timers cast 19.9% of Democratic ballots.

First-time Republicans: strongest in the mountains

14% in the reddest precincts, 1% in the bluest. Gilmer (19%), Lumpkin (18%) and White (16%) led. First-timers cast 8.7% of Republican ballots.

Georgia's precincts, four ways

Every kind of precinct lost Republican primary voters from 2022; Democratic gains grew with density.

Dots: random sample of precincts. Lines: LOESS across all precincts, weighted by base size, with 95% bands; dashed lines are statewide rates. Existing-voter turnout: returning past primary voters minus 2022 voters who skipped 2026, as a share of the party's 2022 primary vote.

Georgia, precinct by precinct

Net crossover leans D around Atlanta and Athens and R in rural east-central and southwest Georgia.

Pinch or Ctrl/⌘-scroll to zoom, drag to pan, tap a precinct for its value. Download PNG saves the current view.

Who crossed, by group

R → D: under 1% in Trump country, 7% in Harris's best precincts

R → D climbs from 0.6% in precincts near 8% Harris to 6.7% at 84%; the two crossover lines meet at 52% Harris. Among large counties, DeKalb (6.5%), Clarke (5.4%) and Fulton (4.5%) stood out.

D → R: white voters leave rural Democratic primaries

4.1% in the reddest precincts, 0.4% in the bluest. Washington and Wilkes (17%) and Jefferson (16%) stood out; nearly all who crossed there were white.

Point gain: group rate minus statewide rate. Shown only where the gap exceeds sampling error. Groups overlap and don't control for one another. Race is self-reported on the Georgia voter file.

Where the 15-point swing came from

The primary margin moved 562,077 votes toward Democrats. Two-thirds came from turnout among past primary voters, mostly Republicans who sat out.

10%Switching

66%Existing-voter turnout

24%New voters

	Democratic primary	Republican primary	Margin
2022 primary (voter file)	685,399	1,100,615	R+415,216
Switching	+47,402	−12,156	D+59,558
Voted the other party's primary in 2022	+37,480	+8,817	D+28,663
Skipped 2022, last primary was the other party's	+18,739	+16,507	D+2,232
Voted this party's primary in 2022, the other in 2026	−8,817	−37,480	D+28,663
Existing-voter turnout	+131,492	−237,621	D+369,113
Skipped 2022 while registered, voted in 2024	+91,922	+76,055	D+15,867
Voted in 2024, registered after the 2022 deadline	+14,242	+10,236	D+4,006
Skipped 2022, last voted before 2022	+190,438	+80,834	D+109,604
Voted in 2022, skipped 2026	−165,110	−404,746	D+239,636
New voters	+214,333	+80,927	D+133,406
First primary ever, registered by the 2022 deadline	+120,466	+47,466	D+73,000
First primary ever, registered after the 2022 deadline	+93,867	+33,461	D+60,406
2026 primary (voter file)	1,078,626	931,765	D+146,861
Change	+393,227	−168,850	D+562,077

Democrats added 393,227 ballots

First-time voters added 214,333, returning past primary voters 131,492 on net and switchers 47,402.

Republicans lost 168,850

404,746 of their 2022 primary voters skipped 2026. Returning voters and newcomers replaced 61% of them.

Both years from the voter file; 2026 ballots, including nonpartisan-only, total 2.05 million, in line with the nearly 2 million the Secretary of State reported. Skipped 2022 = registered by the Apr. 25, 2022 deadline. Nonpartisan-only ballots count as no party. 2022 had a contested GOP governor's primary.

What predicted each choice

Models of individual voters from the voter file, trained on a 4% sample of registrants plus every crossover voter. Bars show how much each set of traits helped the model tell voters apart. Likeliest: the tenth of each group the model rated most likely. Returning: voters whose last party primary was that party's. "Without vote history" drops primary and general-election history. Turnout scores excluded. Regional component: actual count against a model without region, relative to the statewide gap; shown where the difference exceeds sampling error. Fulton is split into North Fulton, the City of Atlanta and South Fulton.