Polls point to Democratic gains in red places. In Texas, the gains were in already-blue areas.

113,615 Republican-history Texans voted in the 2026 Democratic primary, mostly in blue, urban precincts. The Democratic share of primary ballots rose from 36% to 52%.

R → D crossover3.8%

of Republican-history voters voted in the Democratic primary

113,615 voters · 5.0% of D ballots

D → R crossover2.3%

of Democratic-history voters voted in the Republican primary

46,700 voters · 2.2% of R ballots

First-time Democrats19.8%

of expected voters with no primary history voted in the Democratic primary

694,204 voters · 30.7% of D ballots

First-time Republicans8.3%

of the same group voted in the Republican primary

291,692 voters · 13.8% of R ballots

Republicans crossed over where Democrats were already strong

Crossover rate by precinct 2024 Harris share.

R → D peaked in the bluest precincts, D → R in the reddest.

R → D rises with Democratic strength

Under 1% in the most Trump-leaning precincts, 16% in Harris's strongest. Highest in Travis, Dallas and Bexar among the big metros, and in the border counties.

D → R rises with Republican strength

7% in precincts Harris lost badly, under 1% in her strongest. Highest in far West Texas, the Panhandle and the rolling plains.

How the rates move with precinct traits

Crossovers rise with Democratic vote share and density.

Dots: random sample of precincts. Lines: LOESS across all precincts, weighted by base size, with 95% bands; dashed lines are statewide rates. Existing-voter turnout: returning past primary voters minus 2022 voters who skipped 2026, as a share of the party's 2022 primary vote.

Precinct map

Democratic primary gains cluster in the cities, suburbs and border; deep-red rural Texas moved least.

Pinch or Ctrl/⌘-scroll to zoom, drag to pan, tap a precinct for its value. Download PNG saves the current view.

Which voters crossed over most

Point gain: group rate minus statewide rate. Shown only where the gap exceeds sampling error. Groups overlap and don't control for one another.

Where the 2026 primary shift came from

Switching was 12% of the 1.02 million-vote shift in the primary margin. New and returning voters drove the rest.

12%Switching

48%Existing-voter turnout

39%New voters

	Democratic primary	Republican primary	Margin
2022 primary (certified)	1,075,601	1,954,172	R+878,571
Switching	+130,172	+4,618	D+125,554
Voted the other party's primary in 2022	+60,772	+19,815	D+40,957
Skipped 2022, last primary was the other party's	+89,215	+45,575	D+43,640
Voted this party's primary in 2022, the other in 2026	−19,815	−60,772	D+40,957
Existing-voter turnout	+362,059	−133,847	D+495,906
Skipped 2022 while registered, voted in 2024	+222,288	+367,304	R+145,016
Voted in 2024, registered after the 2022 deadline	+20,852	+34,258	R+13,406
Skipped 2022, last voted before 2022	+448,229	+195,597	D+252,632
Voted in 2022, skipped 2026	−299,738	−614,124	D+314,386
Voted in 2022, no longer on the voter file	−29,572	−116,882	D+87,310
New voters	+694,204	+291,692	D+402,512
First primary ever, registered by the 2022 deadline	+461,784	+206,363	D+255,421
First primary ever, registered after the 2022 deadline	+232,420	+85,329	D+147,091
2026 primary	2,262,036	2,116,635	D+145,401
Change	+1,186,435	+162,463	D+1,023,972

Democrats gained on every front

New voters supplied 59% of the Democratic increase. Lapsed voters returning outnumbered 2022 voters who stayed home by 391,000.

Republican growth was all new voters

Switching roughly broke even. Existing-voter turnout fell by 134,000, including 117,000 2022 primary voters no longer on the voter file.

2022: certified governor's primary vote; 2026: voter file. Skipped 2022 = registered by the Feb. 7, 2022 deadline. New = no primary ballot 2002–2025.